A timeline of fast-moving prediction markets
Americans have been placing bets on presidential elections since the 1880s, but it wasn’t until 1988 when three economists at the University of Iowa decided (over lunch beers) to introduce the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), an early prediction market that still exists today. Other private prediction markets like InTrade popped up in the early 2000s but were shut down once they attracted too much attention. But prediction markets have truly taken off in the last year and a half, after the 2024 presidential election and a federal court win that cleared the way for more election contracts. The Trump administration’s loosening of regulations (and the Trump family’s own investments) has also supercharged their adoption. Here’s a brief timeline of how we got here: Jan. 2025: Donald Trump Jr. announces he is joining Kalshi as a “strategic advisor.” March 2025: Robinhood launches a prediction market hub in its app with a Kalshi partnership. Aug. 2025: Donald Trump Jr. also joins Polymarket’s advisory board after his venture capital firm invested in the company. Oct. 2025: The NHL announces a partnership with Polymarket and Kalshi, the first major sports league partnership. Dec. 2025: Kalshi partners with CNN and CNBC. Dec. 2025: Polymarket officially relaunches in the US after a nearly four-year ban. Dec. 2025: DraftKings, the sports betting app, launches its own prediction market. Jan. 2026: Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal’s parent company, partners with Polymarket. March 2026: MLB announces a deal with Polymarket, becoming the largest US sports league to partner with a prediction market. March 2026: The US Senate introduces a bipartisan bill to ban prediction markets from offering sports contracts. April 2026: The CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to be the sole regulatory body of prediction markets. (State-level battles might head to the Supreme Court next year.) April 2026: A federal court rules that New Jersey cannot regulate Kalshi’s federally approved contracts, giving the industry a major court victory. April 2026: The Senate unanimously approves a ban on staff members trading on prediction markets. |