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The embarrassing lesson of Pam Bondi’s confirmation hearing

The embarrassing lesson of Pam Bondi’s confirmation hearing

MS NOW · an hour ago
by Mary McCord · Opinion


Maybe now that Pam Bondi is gone, she will reflect on where and why she went astray.

Since Bondi became U.S. attorney general last February, I’ve often thought of three witnesses who testified at her confirmation hearing in support of her nomination. All were in law enforcement. All had worked with Bondi when she was attorney general of Florida. One had even run for that office as a Democrat.

Each said that they believed she would adhere to the rule of law as U.S. attorney general.
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‘She couldn’t get the revenge he craved’: Trump fires Bondi as attorney general April 3, 2026 / 13:14

I, too, testified during the second day of Bondi’s confirmation hearings, in my capacity as a veteran of the Department of Justice for more than 20 years, including as the acting assistant attorney general for national security. I was there not to speak about Bondi — whom I have never met — but to remind lawmakers of the importance of maintaining the independence of the Department. I testified that this requires the attorney general to take seriously the oath they swear to the Constitution, not the president; to recuse from any matter where their impartiality could reasonably be questioned; and to reaffirm policies in place since Watergate to limit contacts between the White House and Justice Department lawyers on specific investigations and cases.

Among the other witnesses’ comments that I have reflected on during Bondi’s tenure, which ended Thursday, are these: One testified that Bondi understood a prosecutor’s obligation to “follow the evidence and the law, without fear or favor.” Another said that Bondi “appreciates the rules which make our judicial system the best in the world” and told Justice Department lawyers that they, like him, “will love working with Pam Bondi.” One extolled her “compassionate side,” as a “staunch supporter of crime victims.” Bondi herself committed to “one tier of justice for all.”


I have since wondered many times whether Bondi’s supporters at that hearing have had regrets as they’ve watched her actions over the past 14 months stray far from their predictions.

Chatting with Bondi’s supporters before and after the hearing, I never doubted their earnestness. They had worked with her to go after the “pill mills” that had produced the opioid crisis that killed many Floridians. The Democratic witness had even been tapped by Bondi to be her “drug czar,” which sparked significant criticism from Florida Republicans. Having seen Bondi promote Donald Trump’s fraudulent election claims on Fox TV and elsewhere, I was dubious about her ability to uphold the ideals of the Department of Justice, but I could not deny that she had some prosecutorial chops and had, at least with respect to her choice of drug czar, shown a commendable lack of partisanship.

I have since wondered many times whether Bondi’s supporters at that hearing have had regrets as they’ve watched her actions over the past 14 months stray far from their predictions.

In her first address to Justice Department attorneys in the Great Hall of the Robert F. Kennedy building, Bondi did not commit to evenhanded justice. Instead, she announced that she, Todd Blanche (Trump’s former personal attorney who was deputy attorney general under Bondi and is now acting attorney general), and Emil Bove, then the principal assistant deputy attorney general, were “so proud to work at the directive of Donald Trump.”

And work at the president’s directive she did. On her first day as U.S. attorney general, Bondi issued a series of memos to DOJ attorneys, including one that established a “Weaponization Working Group” to examine, among other frequent Trump complaints, the investigations by Special Counsel Jack Smith and the “pursuit of improper investigative tactics and unethical prosecutions” relating to Jan. 6. Another memo announced a policy of “zealous advocacy” and threatened discipline, including termination, for any department attorney who refused to zealously advocate for the president’s policies because of “personal political views or judgments.”
Play
Pam Bondi out at DOJ after failed ‘revenge’ prosecutions and Trump administration’s Epstein turmoil April 2, 2026 / 11:45

Rather than following the evidence and the law, as one witness predicted, Bondi tried to appease Trump by investigating and prosecuting his political enemies, including former FBI director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James. She did so after the president complained that “Nothing is being done” about Comey, James and Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., all of whom Trump called “guilty as hell.” Under Bondi’s leadership, the Justice Department took steps such as dropping its prosecution of Eric Adams, then mayor of New York, in what appeared to be a deal to get Adams to cooperate with the president’s immigration enforcement agenda. Acting U.S. Attorney Danielle Sassoon, who headed the prosecution, cited the zealous-advocacy memo in her resignation letter, which said the dismissal was “driven by improper considerations.”


Far from adhering to the rule of law and the impartial administration of justice, Bondi cast those principles aside as attorney general in her dogged pursuit of the president’s campaign of retribution.

And in contrast to the prediction of another witness that lawyers would love working with Bondi, scores of DOJ attorneys lost their jobs. After getting rid of Jack Smith’s team, Bondi told Fox News host Sean Hannity that department leadership would keep going to “root out” the people “who despise Donald Trump.” Many career attorneys with irreplaceable expertise were forced out; others resigned because they did not feel that they could in good faith defend the president’s actions. So many left U.S. attorney’s offices that Bondi’s former chief of staff posted on social media: “If you are a lawyer, are interested in being an AUSA, and support President Trump and anti-crime agenda, DM me.” In March, the Justice Department authorized U.S. attorney’s offices to recruit straight out of law school, removing a minimum requirement of one year of experience, due to the “exigent hiring need for attorneys across the Department.”

As to Bondi’s record as, in the words of one of the witnesses, a “staunch supporter of crime victims,” the evidence is spotty at best. Although she has publicly honored the mothers of victims of violence by those she called “illegal aliens” and victims of fentanyl overdoses, she refused even to look at victims of Jeffrey Epstein who attended a February House Judiciary Committee hearing when lawmakers asked the Epstein victims present to raise their hands if they had not had any opportunity to meet with the Justice Department. Bondi has been harshly criticized by Democrats and Republicans over her handling of the Epstein files, including the Justice Department’s failure to redact personal identifying information and even nude photographs of victims. Her response to criticism from lawmakers included calling Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., a “washed-up lawyer” and Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., a “failed politician” with “Trump derangement syndrome.”

Far from adhering to the rule of law and the impartial administration of justice, Bondi cast those principles aside as attorney general in her dogged pursuit of the president’s campaign of retribution. She did an enormous disservice to the Department of Justice, greatly harming its lawyers, crime victims and public trust in the institution. The Senate must ensure that the next attorney general is held to the standards that Bondi’s supporters predicted of her — but that she failed to meet.

The post The embarrassing lesson of Pam Bondi’s confirmation hearing appeared first on MS NOW.

‘Significant Support’ for Trades Apprenticeships

 


‘Significant Support’ for Trades Apprenticeships

The government’s new $6-billion skills development initiative, titled Team Canada Strong, is meant to address a long-standing shortage of skilled tradespeople that is expected to deepen as older workers retire, the Globe and Mail reports.

“This is a smart investment in the future of our country,” Canadian Labour Congress President Bea Bruske said in a statement. “At the same time, we need to see the government invest in building physical and social infrastructure so these skilled workers can be put to work in good, unionized jobs.”

“Think of it as a human resources strategy to go alongside the major projects capital investment strategy,” Marc Desormeaux, vice-president of policy at the Business Council of Canada, told the Globe. “A major challenge for our economy over the long run, particularly to our building ambitions, is to get the right people with the right skills able to fill labour shortages.”

The plan includes:

• $2 billion over five years, including wage subsidies of $10,000 per employee, to help workers aged 15 to 30 get entry-level trades experience;

• $3.4 billion over five years to help apprentices complete their training.

The federal government estimates its plans for new housing, infrastructure, and large resource projects will require 1.4 million additional trades positions by 2033, a far cry from what the economic update funding will support.

Deloitte economist Trevin Stratton called the announcement “definitely a step in the right direction”. But he told the Toronto Star the government has “very ambitious building targets and objectives, and so more will probably be needed for us to fully meet those.” A report last October, which he co-authored, warned that Canada’s economy could look like Alberta and B.C. in the early 2000s when a “perfect storm” of energy projects created “bidding wars for electricians, welders, crane operators, and concrete crews, schedule delays, and spiralling costs.”

When that happened, the report added, “it was not a shortage of money or projects holding back activity, but the lack of available workers.”

Efficiency Canada cited Team Canada Strong as one of the highlights of the economic update, along with a permanent capital gains tax exemption for employee ownership and several other measures. Social Capital Partners Chair Jon Shell praised the employee ownership announcement as “huge news”, noting that the provision is now a permanent part of Canada’s tax code.

“The exponential growth of employee ownership in both the UK and the U.S. has been driven by policies exactly like the one the Canadian government just announced,” he wrote on LinkedIn. “It’s going to be a tonne of fun to watch the same thing happen here.”

$13B Over Five Years for Climate Finance

The economic update also earned praise for pledging $13 billion over five years for international climate finance.

“The government’s move to scale up and reorient $13 billion in international climate finance is… welcome, helping emerging economies cut emissions while opening markets for Canadian clean technologies and crowding in private investment,” Canadian Climate Institute President Rick Smith said in a release.

“There haven’t been many wins for climate action lately, but Canada’s renewed and increased climate finance commitment is one worth celebrating,” agreed Climate Action Network Canada Executive Director Caroline Brouillette. “Amid other countries’ devastating cuts and delays, this move illustrates what Prime Minister Carney meant by a principled and pragmatic approach to international relations. It shows that Canada remains committed to its Paris Agreement obligation to provide climate finance, and reinforces that international cooperation is in Canada’s interest.”

Complete story here

Bald dudes are flocking to Turkey to get some hair

 

Men going to Turkey for hair transplant surgery

Ozan Kose/Getty Images

If you’re a man who’s comfortable on extremely long flights and desperate for a life where you don’t have to apply sunblock to the top of your head, then you might be the perfect candidate for a hair transplant in Turkey.

The country has become a haven for follically challenged American men who want to get the full effect of driving with the top down without paying steep US prices. Many clinics in Turkey attract customers with all-inclusive, cost-friendly packages reminiscent of vacation deals to tropical climates:

  • A hair graft in the US can run between $18,000 and $24,000; the rates in Turkey are typically between $3,000 and $9,000.
  • Clinics in Turkey often include a stay at a luxury hotel (for two to four days, usually), airport transportation, translators, and sightseeing tours. It’s like a trip to the Caribbean where you come back with new hair instead of braided hair.

Hair-raising revenue: According to the Turkish Health Tourism Association, ~1 million people traveled to Turkey for hair transplants in 2022, spending about $2 billion.

Buzz from social media: The same way one influencer can post a video that turns a quiet bar you enjoy into an overcrowded hot spot, people showing off their new dos on TikTok is inspiring others to head to Turkey.

Buyer beware: Critics warn that health complications could arise if the transplant is too aggressive and done in one shot, as opposed to most US doctors who restore hair over multiple visits. The International Society of Hair Restoration Surgery warns against going to so-called black-market clinics that do too much, too quickly. It’s also difficult to find follow-up care after returning to the States, as many doctors will balk at treating patients who had procedures performed elsewhere.

Highlights from yesterday’s Spring Economic Update

 

Fulfilling an obligation to pay it back

 Fulfilling an obligation to pay it back


Canadian Sailing Judge Leo Reise has received Sail Canada Judge Emeritus Recognition, an honorary title and lifetime appointment.

The recognition is given from time to time upon recommendation of Sail Canada Judges Sub-Committee, to an individual who, as a judge, has made an exceptional contribution to the sport of sailing over an extended period of time, and who has retired their certification.

“Leo Reise represents the very best of our sport’s volunteer spirit," said Ryan Kelly, CEO of Sail Canada. “For decades he has given his time, expertise, and leadership as a judge, committee leader, and mentor, helping ensure sailing competitions are fair, well-run, and grounded in strong principles.

"Officials like Leo are the backbone of our sport, and his contributions have shaped generations of sailors and race officials alike. Sail Canada is proud to recognize his lifelong commitment with Judge Emeritus status.”

Giving up on giving

  

Photo illustration of a large stack of one hundred dollar bills with a document floating away, titled "Giving Pledge"

Morning Brew Design

The year was 2010: A peplum top was standard going-out attire, Justin Bieber had just released “Baby,” and billionaires were signing onto the Giving Pledge—an effort backed by Warren Buffett and Bill Gates that asked the ultrawealthy to commit more than half their money to nonprofits. But much like the BlackBerry as the go-to tech for busy business people, the pledge has significantly dipped in popularity since then. The New York Times reports:

  • In the pledge’s first five years, from 2010–2015, 113 people signed. Over the next five years, 72 signed one. And the next five garnered just 43 new signatories, with only four new sign-ons in 2024. Last year, 14 people signed.
  • In the past two years, Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong unsigned, and Oracle’s Larry Ellison said he was amending his (nonbinding) pledge to enable giving to more for-profits.

But despite growing backlash from the billionaires it’s aimed at amid a very different political climate (and critics from the left, who assert signers aren’t giving away enough money), backers say the pledge helped establish a new norm of giving among the wealthiest.

MOUNT GAY DISTILLERY INTRODUCES MOUNT GAY SILVER

 MOUNT GAY DISTILLERY INTRODUCES MOUNT GAY SILVER

Explore a new depth of flavor and a new take on one of Mount Gay’s classics.  Specially created by Master Blender Trudiann Branker to keep her native Barbados love for white rum paramount.  Smooth and refined, no sugar or flavors added, everything comes from the raw ingredients, molasses and cask ageing.  Crafted for the perfect cocktail - Elevate your Mojito with Mount Gay Silver.

THE SILVER MOJITO
Ingredients:
• 2oz Mount Gay Silver
• Juice of 1 lime
• 1tsp granulated sugar
• Handful of small mint leaves
• Fresh crushed ice
• Soda Water

Muddle lime juice, sugar and mint, add ice and Mount Gay Silver, top with soda water.  Garnish with a sprig of mint.

https://www.mountgayrum.com/

David Foster and friends to play free Inner Harbour

 

David Foster and friends to play free Inner Harbour concert in August

Jay Leno, Josh Groban and Katharine McPhee will be among the guests as the David Foster Foundation, which supports the families of children with organ transplants, celebrates its 40th anniversary.
web1_davidfosterfoundation_gala_4
David Foster will be accompanied by the Victoria Symphony at the Inner Harbour event, with surprise guests expected to appear. DAVID FOSTER FOUNDATION

Victoria’s David Foster will ­celebrate four decades of fundraising with a red-carpet event and concert at the Inner Harbour this summer.

The Grammy Award-winning producer will be joined by Jay Leno, Josh Groban, Katharine McPhee and others for 40th anniversary celebrations for the David Foster Foundation, which includes an Aug. 7 black-tie gala fundraiser and private party at the Victoria Conference Centre and an Aug. 8 free concert at the Inner Harbour.

“This one is going to be our last major fundraiser of the foundation,” Mike Ravenhill, chief executive officer of the David Foster Foundation, told the Times Colonist on Tuesday. “David and I were talking, and we thought, why not come back to Victoria, where we started, and do our last major fundraiser?”

The foundation, which provides financial support for families with children in need of life-saving organ transplants, has assisted upwards of 1,600 families with a variety of non-medical expenses, including travel, accommodation and mortgage assistance.

The foundation will move away from large-scale events in the future, Ravenhill said, in order to transition from a fundraising foundation into an operational foundation that administers its multimillion-dollar endowment.

The David Foster Foundation got its start in Victoria in 1986, and later included celebrity softball games as part of its initiatives.

John Travolta, Michael J. Fox, Rob Lowe and Olivia Newton-John were among the ball-playing guests during the 1980s, before the foundation switched to concerts as its primary means of raising funds.

The foundation’s 25th anniversary events in 2012 also featured a Victoria gala and concert, with Wayne Gretzky, Muhammad Ali and Michael Bublé helping to raise $4.6 million for the ­charity.Additional performers on tap for the 40th anniversary events this summer include the Tenors, former American Idol contestant Pia Toscano, America’s Got Talent finalist Daniel Emmet, and Jersey Boys actor-singer Erich Bergen.

“We wanted to come back and say thank you to Victoria,” Ravenhill said. More guests will be announced in the coming months, he added. “We are going to have lots of entertainers, lots of energy and lots of surprises.”

The celebration at the Victoria Conference Centre will be followed by an exclusive VIP after-party at the Fairmont Empress, featuring live performances by The London Essentials and the Rhapsody Orchestra.

Foster will perform on a floating barge accompanied by the Victoria Symphony at the Inner Harbour event, with surprise guests expected to appear.

“We are going to take the bar and raise it,” Ravenhill said.

For more details, visit ­davidfosterfoundation.com.

Mainstream media

 I have almost come to the end with mainstream media! Their constant spin of "Trump says," twenty-four seven is over for me. There is a worldwide economic war, which demands clarity and reliable sources. In Canada, the opposition right-wing politicians have their own interests, not exactly Canadian. Mark Carney provides leadership for Canada and the rest of the free world as his trade deals top 1 trillion dollars. Democracy is at stake here, and a repeat of WWII is not the order of the day! We can unite again!

NBA expansion to Seattle

 

Illustration of the NBA logo being stretched out and expanded.

Nick Iluzada

Get ready to learn coffee and desert air, buddies. The NBA’s board of governors voted unanimously yesterday to begin the vetting process to add a 31st and 32nd franchise in Las Vegas and Seattle, respectively, for the 2028-29 season.

The franchise entrance fee is just a bit more than what you paid to join your rec league: ESPN reports that the new clubs will be expected to pay the NBA $7 billion to $10 billion for the privilege of having Charles Barkley make fun of them. However, the announcement comes at an inopportune time:

  • While next year’s salary cap will reportedly rise by $10 million, that’s still about $1 million lower than projections, due to a decline in local media revenue.
  • The tanking problem, aka intentionally losing or fielding bad teams in order to get better draft picks, is worse than usual (see: whatever the Brooklyn Nets did here). And expansion teams historically struggle at first, which could make tanking an even bigger issue.

But that depends on the NBA’s expansion draft rules. The NHL tweaked its system to benefit its recent Vegas and Seattle expansion teams: Vegas went to the Stanley Cup Final in year one, while Seattle made the playoffs in year two.

Zoom out: Despite rampant tanking and a $1 million shortfall, the NBA will survive. Overall viewership was up through last month’s All-Star break.

Anthropic’s latest AI model strikes fear into banks

 Anthropic’s latest AI model strikes fear into banks

Close crop of a 100 dollar bill disintegrating into pixels, with Ben Franklin's face obscured a bit so his eyes are visible.

Morning Brew Design

An impromptu meeting of bank CEOs and federal officials was held in the nation’s capital this week because of the destructive capabilities of Anthropic’s latest AI model, Claude Mythos, which can detect cybersecurity flaws in operating systems and web browsers with exponentially greater efficiency than human hackers.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gathered the heads of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo on Tuesday after the limited rollout of Mythos, per Bloomberg. The emergency meeting is a sign that the Trump administration thinks that, while Mythos is intended to protect companies from hackers, it could be used to attack the foundation of the US financial system by targeting the world’s biggest banks.

What’s so scary?

Anthropic distributed Mythos to only ~40 organizations, which include major banks, according to Bloomberg, because the company said it’s too powerful for a full release to the public. CNBC reported that the company also briefed government officials on its capabilities before the release. So, how dangerous is it?

  • Officials believe Mythos can debilitate Fortune 100 companies, infiltrate national defense systems, and take down huge chunks of the internet, according to Axios.
  • A security expert told Business Insider that a team of humans can discover about 100 critical flaws with no immediate fixes per year (not including what happens on bad first dates), but Mythos can find “thousands.”

Offense vs. defense: Mythos is equally capable of identifying and exploiting weaknesses in a system. Experts told BI that this gives hackers an advantage in the short term. But as widespread adoption occurs, the edge shifts back to those defending themselves.

Safety net: Regulators require banks to hold capital in reserve to cover unexpected losses from events such as data breaches and cyberattacks. But banks have complained that they require too much, and a proposal from the Fed last month, if approved, would ease some of those requirements.

Zoom out: The concerns over Mythos come as Anthropic is fighting the Trump administration over being designated a supply chain risk by the Pentagon after limiting the use of its AI tech in war.

Rogue waves!

Rogue waves! What can they teach us about managing risk at sea
Yachting Monthly
March 31, 2026
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Managing known risks is one thing, but how do you prepare for unexpected events? Mark Chisnell examines the problem of rogue waves

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If there is a single point on the planet that figures in the imagination of every sailor, it’s Cape Horn. It lies at the southern end of the South American continent, squeezing the wind and waves of the South Pacific Ocean into a 500-mile gap between South America and Antarctica, right where the deep water of the South East Pacific Basin shallows on to the continental shelf. It’s a lethal combination.

Conor O’Brien’s Saoirse was the first yacht to successfully go around in 1923, and it was 35 years before a second, the Tzu Hang, would clear customs in Melbourne with Montevideo in mind.
Calm before the monster wave

The Tzu Hang was 46ft long, originally built in Hong Kong from teak with copper fastenings, and in 1951 it was bought by Beryl and Miles Smeeton. Miles was a career army officer, and it was after his service in the Second World War that they took up sailing. In 1955, they sold the farm in British Columbia that had been their home since the war and took off in the boat. Like so many people before and since, they set off across the Pacific. Unlike many others, on reaching Australia they turned back east, sailed down into the high latitudes and attempted to round Cape Horn.


The Smeetons were the second sailors ever to round Cape Horn in a sailing yacht, the Tzu Hang. Photo: Tor Johnson Clio Smeeton

It all started well enough; in his book, Once is Enough, Miles Smeeton describes an idyllic life onboard. They had the fire stoked up like a country pub on a winter weekend, with the cat curled up in front
of it.

Beryl Smeeton had taken to knitting jumpers, and her breakfasts of porridge, bacon and eggs, toast and home-made marmalade all washed down with tea would have shamed some British bed-and-breakfast hotels. The bunks were real beds, oatmeal cakes were baked, pudding was cooked at any excuse and the England versus Ireland rugby match was on the radio: blissful really – until 12 February 1959.
Deteriorating conditions

Things had been deteriorating for a while.

The Smeetons and their crew mate, John Guzzwell, had reduced the sail of Tzu Hang and were trailing over 100m of 8cm-thick cable out of the back of the boat. The hope was to slow her down and help keep her in line with the breaking waves.

The swell was bigger than they had ever seen before – Miles Smeeton described a seascape that was as different from a normal rough ocean as a winter landscape is to a summer one. There was white foam and spume everywhere, showered like confetti by the breaking crests of the huge waves; it lay over the ocean like Christmas snow.


Clio Smeeton took this colour photo of her parents handling a whisker pole on deck at sea aboard Tzu Hang. Photo: Clio Smeeton

And for the first time since the Tasman Sea, the albatrosses had disappeared – this, it turned out, was ominous.

Miles was in his bunk reading when it happened, his wife on deck at the helm. He described what she saw: ‘Close behind her a great wall of water was towering above her, so wide that she couldn’t see its flanks, so high and so steep that she knew Tzu Hang could not ride over it. It didn’t seem to be breaking as the other waves had broken, but water was cascading down its front, like a waterfall.’

After that, Beryl Smeeton remembered thinking that she could do nothing else with the helm, then the sensation of falling and no more, until she found herself floating alone, in the Southern Ocean, with just the broken tether of her lifeline for company.

It was only when she was lifted by the following wave that she saw the boat just 30m away, both masts gone and very low in the water – which was unsurprising, when you consider that the deckhouse had been ripped off.


Miles and Beryl Smeeton aboard Tzu Hang with their daughter Clio, and pets
Inside the maelstrom

It’s arguable whether Miles Smeeton and John Guzzwell were any better off down below. They were hurled around the cabin along with everything that wasn’t tied down and quite a bit of what had been. Then the vanishing deckhouse had allowed the cold black sea to pour in, as Tzu Hang was rolled over and under that huge wave.

They both surfaced into waist-deep water, awash with cushions, mattresses and books – and one seriously unhappy cat. Miles made it on deck in time to see his wife swim to the remains of the mast, from where she pulled herself to the boat on the still-attached rigging and was hauled back on board by the men.

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Their home was full of water, and there was a 2m hole where the deckhouse had been. Both masts were gone, as were the rudder, dinghies and the cabin skylights. The rigging, guardrails and stanchions were a mass of twisted metal. There was no life raft, and no hope of rescue.

The men just stood and stared in despair, but Beryl went for the buckets. She galvanised them all, and their energy was rewarded with luck. John Guzzwell quickly found nails, a hammer and wood in the chaos below. He worked like a demon to make Tzu Hang watertight again, before another wave took her down for good. Meanwhile, Miles and Beryl bailed, and bailed, and bailed. It took 12 hours to get the water down to the level of the floorboards – had there been any floorboards left.

Then, exhausted, they managed to heat some soup, and slept.


The Smeetons set about making the hull watertight and setting a jury rig
Clearing the chaos

The storm abated the following day, and they were fortunate that the sturdy teak hull had not sprung a leak. Slowly, the chaos was cleared – amongst the casualties was the stuffed blue bear they carried as a lucky mascot. Headless, he was thrown overboard, judged to have been no help at all.

They built a temporary mast to pull up a small sail, along with a steering oar. Mostly Tzu Hang sailed herself though, with just changes to the sails to keep her going in a straight line. Enough navigational equipment had survived for them to take position fixes, along with a pilot book for South America and 23 unbroken eggs. It took almost a week for the cat to dry off and recover her good humour.

It was not their only encounter with a rogue wave, and Miles Smeeton put himself at odds with the received wisdom of the sailing fraternity of the time when he concluded that there are some waves that a yacht, ‘will be lucky to survive whatever she does.’ These days, such an opinion is mainstream, but prior to Tzu Hang’s experiences, yachtsmen had believed that a well-sailed, well-founded yacht was safe in any deep-water sea. They were wrong. There are rogue waves out there that don’t seem to belong to any ocean or storm, monstrous waves created by some unknown collusion of the elements. ‘With more experience I do not think these waves are so rare,’ commented Smeeton.


This rare photo of a rogue wave was taken by first mate Philippe Lijour aboard the supertanker Esso Languedoc, during a storm off Durban in South Africa in 1980. The mast seen starboard in the photo stands 25 metres above mean sea level. The wave approached the ship from behind before breaking over the deck, but in this case caused only minor damage. The mean wave height at the time was between 5-10 metres. Photo: ESA Standard Licence
There be monsters

The Smeetons’ experience can teach us something important about risk – that we can’t know all of the risks we face. When Miles Smeeton published his book, it joined a building folklore about rogue waves. There are many accounts of huge waves dotted throughout the logbooks and tales of seafarers, one of the most famous being Ernest Shackleton’s account in his book about the voyage from Antarctica to South Georgia, The Voyage of the James Caird.


Then there was the Esso Languedoc, caught in a storm off South Africa in 1980. Philippe Lijour, the first mate aboard the oil tanker, was fortunate enough to have a camera handy when the breaking crest of a wave roared past, just short of the top of the ship’s cranes some 25m above the waterline.

At the time, Lijour reckoned the average wave height to be somewhere between five to 10m from trough to crest. So where did this monster come from? Despite the stories, oceanographers refused to believe these freak waves existed in any number. Conventional mathematics states that waves should vary in a pattern around the average, called the significant wave height, defined as the mean of the largest third of the waves recorded.


Heaving seas beneath the decks of the Oseberg A oil rig in the North Sea
The new year wave

According to this analysis, in a storm sea of 12m, a 15m wave will pop up about once every 25 years. A rogue wave – one defined as twice that of the significant wave height – is possible, but you’ll have to wait about 10,000 years to see one.

It seemed to the seafaring community that they were appearing a lot more often than that, but the scientists were about as interested in the anecdotal evidence as they were in reports of the Loch Ness Monster. And that’s how things stood until New Year’s Day 1995.

The winds howling down the North Sea had peaked at hurricane force that afternoon, when what’s become known as the New Year Wave roared under the Draupner oil platform just after 1500. It was measured by a laser wave sensor at a maximum height of 25.6m – twice the size of the average wave at the time. Suddenly, the accounts of walls of water approaching at twice the height of the waves around them were no longer so unbelievable.

The immense extra force of these waves did not have good implications for the safety of ships and oil platforms – their design had always been based on the assumptions of conventional mathematics. But the maths was flawed, so the science community went back to its other mainstay: observation.

The EU started up a project called MaxWave, which used images from satellite radar to measure wave height across broad swathes of ocean. In three weeks of images taken from a period and place when two cruise ships had almost been sunk by rogues, it measured ten waves bigger than 25m, which kicked the conventional mathematical models into touch.


Rogue science

We still don’t have a definitive explanation for why these waves occur. The most likely ones use the same equations as quantum mechanics. It seems that the energy from several separate waves is being focused into just one or two of these monsters, but until theories are better refined, our best chance of predicting these waves is radar tracking.

The research from the MaxWave and subsequent programmes have essentially upended hundreds of years of design assumptions about the conditions that ships will meet at sea. It turns out that a newly built and apparently well-founded, well-prepared ship and crew leaving harbour in 1980 to cross the North Atlantic were in fact not prepared to face the conditions they might encounter.

There is a lesson here for our knowledge of risk – it’s difficult to properly prepare for and mitigate all the risks when we can’t be sure what they are. The Smeetons’ experience was completely unforeseeable at the time.

A rogue wave – of a size that was believed by the planet’s top mathematicians to be physically impossible – appeared from nowhere and rolled their boat, destroyed their home and threatened their lives. Nothing in their experience had given them any expectation of this event, so how could they have been aware of this risk, never mind prepared for it?
The great unknown

Rogue waves happen in many different fields and areas of our lives. Donald Rumsfeld famously labelled them the unknown unknowns in his reply to a journalist’s question in 2002. ‘There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.

But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know…’ because we haven’t thought about them. The question we must consider is whether – and how – we can prepare for the unknown unknowns. Is it even possible to prepare for the implausible, improbable or ‘impossible’?

We can’t plan in any detail for an unknown, unexpected and unpredictable event – but we can plan flexibly, we can be open to the potential for the unexpected and we can prepare for it in some ways. The Smeetons and Guzzwell had a hammer, nails and wood on board Tzu Hang and that was enough to get them through an experience they had no expectation, or comprehension, of when they left Melbourne.

This is what we’re looking for when we’re preparing for something with full appreciation of all the risks, known and unknown – the wood, hammer and nails, the tools that will get us through the unexpected crisis. Remember the Tzu Hang, next time you pack for an adventure.

RG Richardson Communications News

I am a business economist with interests in international trade worldwide through politics, money, banking and VOIP Communications. The author of RG Richardson City Guides has over 300 guides, including restaurants and finance.